Saturday, December 28, 2019

Study On Robecos And Its Investment Strategy Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 9 Words: 2823 Downloads: 6 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? [Problem definition, relevance and motivation] Robecos investment strategy relies on identifying and exploiting market inefficiencies, which are a result of the predictable patterns in investors behavior. We believe we can outperform the market by locating these inefficiencies. Central in Robecos investment strategy is Robecos proprietary stock-selection model, which is used for decades and was extensively back tested in historical simulations. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Study On Robecos And Its Investment Strategy Finance Essay" essay for you Create order The outcome of this model is a cross-sectional ranking of stocks based on their expected future returns. In order to generate alpha, Robeco overweights certain high-ranked stocks in comparison to the benchmark weight and underweights certain low-ranked stocks. This ranking process is based on four factors; price momentum, earning revisions, management and value. Management + Value + Earning Revisions + Price Momentum = Stock ranking All these themes consist of multiple variables (e.g. earnings to price ratio (E/P) or book to price ratio (B/P) are variables in Value). These variables determine how attractive the stocks are and they may contain valuable information in predicting stock returns. We equally weight each theme to combine these different themes. [Problem definition] Robecos stock-ranking process focuses on the average effect of earning estimates, regardless of the quality and life of those estimates. We aim to add extra predictive power to the earning estimates b y investigating different aspects: different databases different forms: revisions, predictive surprise, growth level, recommendations different levels: consensus, individual analyst-level, extreme estimates different horizons and life of estimates We try to find out which database is better, which form performs better etc. Well look in more detail to the earning estimates with the goal to add extra predictive power to the currently used earning estimates. The overall question, which we try to answer in this thesis, is: How do we detect whose better and which estimates have better predictive quality. Well examine the predictive power of several candidates (based on the different angles) and well extensively back test these candidates; first we test the single variables and later well test the added value of the new candidates to the existing selection model. [Relevance] Robeco continuously attempt to improve the core stock-selection model, and therefore it is relevant to examine the predictive power of earnings estimates from different angles. We start defining candidates based on estimates at individual analyst-level instead of the consensus earnings estimates. More and more studies focused at the individual analyst level and illustrated the importance of analyst characteristics on the stock-prices. Some candidates based on estimates at individual analyst-level are candidates that focus on past accuracy of earning estimates, the age of the estimates, leader analysts, analyst-true call, and tenure. We also define other candidates that may add extra predictive power to the earning estimates. These candidates are based on the relative earning growth and changes in buy/sell recommendations. Furthermore, we consider different horizons and incorporate data from other financial measures in addition to earnings. [Motivation] A key distinguishing feature of our study from previous literature is that well look at the predictive power of earning estimates from different angles, while most of the previous studies give only an explanation of the abnormal returns of the earning forecasts. Data Well examine different databases with detailed information about earnings estimates: I/B/E/S Detailed database: this database is a good foundation of our research as it offers consensus level and detailed analyst-by analyst earning forecasts. I/B/E/S began collecting earning estimates for U.S. companies around 1976, while the International edition starts in 1987. Factset Estimates database: they also provide consensus and detailed-level earning estimates. They claim their estimates are of higher quality and therefore well examine this database. BETTER DATADESCRIPTION, UNIVERSE, THRESHOLD MARKET CAPITALISATION, COUNTRY, SECTOR ETC Methodology Well define some candidates to improve our current stock-selection model. First, well examine the predictive power of past-accuracy. We try to predict the direction of future estimate revisions. First well define some candidates based on specific analyst characteristics . Currently, Robeco only focuses on the average effect of earning estimates, regardless of the quality of those analysts. Therefore well examine the predictive power of some candidates based on analyst characteristics. Finally, we will examine a relative earnings growth candidate that doesnt rely on analyst characteristics but which has shown predictive power in the literature and which is easy to create given the I/B/E/S dataset. Well construct a top-bottom strategy of each candidate and we will back-test the single variables and the added value of the new candidates to the existing stock-selection model. Candidate list We start with describing a candidate list of potential factors that may help i n predicting stock returns. Because we first define these candidates we reduce data mining. Candidates based on analyst characteristics There are several candidates which well examine based on analyst characteristics. Candidate 1: Past Accuracy We start with simply look at the predictive power of past accuracy. For each analyst on each stock we measure the analysts historical accuracy, using the same measure as in Brown(2001). Brown(2001) shows that for distinguishing more accurate from less accurate earnings forecasts a simple model of past accuracy performs as well as a more complex model based on 5 analyst characteristics. Past accuracy (PAt) is defined as the individual analysts forecast error that year (FEt) minus the mean of the forecast errors of all analysts following the company that year () scaled by the mean of the forecast errors of all analysts following the company that year (): The forecast error is defined as the absolute value of the difference bet ween the actual annual earnings (A0t) and the last forecast made by the analyst for that year (LA1t). FE = |A0t|- |LA1t| We have to examine the database and the distribution of the estimates. Then we can decide which weighting scheme to use. We put more weight on analysts with more accurate estimates in the past. We can also order the estimates and take the median of the ordered set of past accuracy. Candidate 2: Forecast Age Recent estimates are more important than stale estimates. We use the same variable as used in Brown(2001). The forecast age (AGEt) is defined as the number of calendar days between the analysts last annual forecast and the fiscal year-end minus the average forecast age of all analysts following the company that year. We should give more weight to the analysts with the most recent estimate. Again we first have to examine the database and the distribution of the estimates, before we can decide which weighting scheme to use. Candidate 3: Lead Ana lyst The timeliness of analysts forecasts can be used as a proxy for unobservable skills in collecting information as leader analyst should be able to release earning forecasts before competing analysts. Cooper et al (2001) uses a Leader-Follower-Ratio (LFR). This ratio measures to which extent the analyst is a leader. Well also use this ratio to rank the stocks which are followed by these leader analysts. The Leader-Follower-Ratio is the cumulative time that a forecast revision leads to the cumulative time that a forecast revision follows: With and Where ti,1 and ti,0 is the length of time that a certain forecast revision leads or follows a given forecast revision respectively. If the LFR is higher than 1, the analyst is a leader. Cooper et al (2001) shows that forecast revisions by lead analysts are positively correlated with recent changes in stock prices. This may indicate that lead analysts have predictive power and therefore we will examine this candidate. We would expect to observe excess stock returns as investors respond to the release of revised forecasts by follower analysts. Well only focus on these lead analysts. Again, we first examine the database. Now we define variables that are based on conflict of interest. If we know the incentives for analysts to make biased earning forecasts, we can generate an abnormal return by identifying these biases. Candidate 4: Analyst true call In the research report of J.P. Morgan (2009) they focus not only on analyst forecasts that strongly deviating from the consensus but from what they call Analyst true Calls. The earnings forecasts of these analysts are already away from consensus but they move them even further away from the consensus. More weight should be given to these analyst forecasts, as these analysts are very confidential about their forecasts because they even move further away from the consensus. We use the same method as described in the research report of J.P. Morgan (2009 ): First we should find the highest en lowest earnings forecasts for the next fiscal year stock by stock. We focus on the analysts who are already away from consensus. Starting with these analysts, we filter these analysts to include only the stocks where the highest earnings forecast have been further increased. Or the lowest earnings forecasts have been further decreased (over the previous month). Thus, we focus on the analysts who make a forecast revision even further away from consensus. In the third step we create two universes: positive Analyst true calls (the highest earnings forecast is further increased) negative Analyst true calls (the lowest earnings forecast is further decreased) Rank the stocks in the two universes. We buy the stocks in the top of the positive universe and sell the stocks in the bottom of the negative universe. Disadvantage of this test: This methodology is a very strong approach. An analyst will not move further up or down every mo nth. We should test this discreteness. In the research report of J.P. Morgan (2009) they do not repeat this procedure every month. We can make this strategy more robust : Find x% of the earning forecasts in the bottom quintile and x% in the highest quintile. After a revision, we select the estimates which moved further away from consensus. Select from the estimates found in step i, x% of these estimates which are again in the bottom quintile or highest quintile. In the third step we create two universes: positive Analyst true calls negative Analyst true calls Rank the stocks in the two universes. We buy the stocks in the top of the positive universe and sell the stocks in the bottom of the negative universe. The second approach is more suitable for ranking, because not all analysts revise their earnings forecasts each month. Candidate 5: Tenure Brown(2009) shows that a strategy by buying a portfolio of firms that are followed by low-tenure analysts and selling a value-weighted portfolio of firms that are followed by high-tenure analysts earn abnormal returns. We use almost the same definition for tenure as in Brown(2009), but well use months instead of years. TENi,t = the number of months since the analyst first makes an estimate of year-ahead earnings in the I/B/E/S database. Well follow the approach as defined in Brown(2009). We rank all stocks of the firm in the analyst forecast sample based on the median value of analyst tenure. Consider a set of k ordered tenure variables of a set of analysts at a certain point in time t for stock i: TEN1,i,tTEN2,I,t.. TENk,i,t. where The median of this ordered dataset is equal to: MEDIANi,t [TENk,i,t] = ( + )/2 Where is the largest integer not greater than x, and is the smallest integer greater than x. Stocks that are followed by high-tenure analysts are in the top portfolio and stocks which are followed by low-tenure analyst are in the bottom portfolio. We can use this can didate in addition to our current earnings revisions strategy. Candidate 6: Star analyst Fang and Yasuda(2008) show that recommendation changes of star analyst are profitable. We will examine the predictive power of earning forecasts of these star analysts. We use this candidate in addition to the current earnings revisions strategy Fang and Yasuda(2008) measures analysts reputation as the All-American title that is granted by the Institutional Investor magazine. This magazine published rankings throughout the year and has been the greatest source of survey-based rankings which identifies the top analysts. They cover equity markets in Asia, Europe, Japan, Latin America, Russia and the U.S.  [1]  An analyst remains his star status for 12 months after the publication in the Institutional Investor magazine. AA elections occur in October of every year. We should match the names of the AA analysts from the Institutional Investor listings with I/B/E/S dataset. I NEED ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF THESE RANKINGS. DO I NEED TO BE A MEMBER BEFORE I HAVE ACCES TO THIS MAGAZINE? Other candidates Candidate 7: Relative earnings growth According to Da and Warachika (2009), stocks with optimistic and pessimistic long-term analyst forecasts relative to the short-term implied growth have negative and positive risk-adjusted returns, respectively. We need the earnings in the previous year (A0t), earnings forecasts for the current fiscal year (A1t) and long-term growth forecasts (LTGt) from the I/B/E/S Detailed Database. We use the same definition of implied short-term growth as in Da and Warachika (2009). The implied short-term growth (ISTGt) is defined as: The difference LTGt ISTGt is appropriate to measure the relative optimism or relative pessimism of analysts at portfolio level. Da and Warachika (2009) conduct the analysis on an earnings-per-share basis, which is also available in the I/B/E/S Detailed Database. In the paper they explain that for some firms the earnings forecasts for the current fiscal year is near zero. Therefore, they construc t a Slope variable as the difference between the rankings of LTG and ISTG. Well use the same approach. We can rank the stocks according to the Slope variable into deciles from 1 to 10 in descending order. We should buy stocks in the top and sell stocks in the bottom. Candidate 8: Changes in buy/sell recommendations Jegadeesh and Titman(2004) and Jha et al(2003) show that the change in analyst buy/sell recommendations provide a meaningful signal as they confirm the earning revisions. In Jegadeesh and Titman (2004) they examine the relation between analyst recommendations and other concurrently available public information. They find that quarterly change in consensus recommendations is a robust return predictor that appears to contain information orthogonal on this range of other predictive variables. Therefore, well use the changes in buy/sell recommendations as signals for further stock performance. Combining previous candidates to create an accurate estimate and investiga te multiple horizons, incorporate data from other financial measures in addition to earnings and use the change in buy/sell recommendation, It is reported in the research paper of Starmine(2007) that a small group of analysts usually lead the peer group and release forecast of higher quality. By following the earnings revisions of these analysts we can improve the outperformance based on consensus. They try to measure the analysts historical accuracy to better predict the direction of future estimates of earning revisions. This model put more weight on the most accurate and most recent estimates. They investigate multiple horizons, incorporate data from other financial measures in addition to earnings and they use the changes in buy/sell recommendations. We can use the basis idea of this model. How can we measure earnings accuracy? We can use past accuracy, the timeliness of the estimate (tenure) and how extreme the estimate is (Analyst-true-call). We first have to test the predictive power of the single candidates and test the accuracy of these variables. OTHER IDEAS? If we have a measure for the accuracy of analyst forecasts, we can calculate an weighted-average estimate which is better than the consensus estimate. Because we identify the individual analysts that are more likely to be accurate in the future, we can get an estimate better than the consensus. We should also look at the age of the earnings estimate. Starmine(2007) exclude analysts with stale forecasts from their analysis. We first have to examine the dataset, we can do the same, or we use a certain weighting scheme (for example exponential). If we have the estimate which is better than the consensus estimate, we can add other aspects to this estimate, as is done in Starmine(2007). We combine the Predicted Surprises (percent difference between this weighted average estimate and the consensus) and consensus changes on EPS, EBITA and Revenue for the current fiscal quarter, curren t fiscal year and next fiscal year. Then we can combine the revisions component score with the recommendation revisions component. Here you can see a screenshot of a video on the StarMine website: Back test We will first test the predictive power of a single candidate, by using the back-test. The basic idea of the back test is to sort the universes into deciles based on the candidate characteristics. Analyze results We select the most promising factors for inclusion in the current stock-selection model. Time Schedule Task Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Literature review, description methodology X X Download data data check X X Test predictive power of single variables x X Test the added value of the new candidates to the existing selection model X X Further improvements X X Writing thesis X X X

Friday, December 20, 2019

Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder ( Adhd ) - 754 Words

Goodman and Scott (1997) suggest that ‘childhood hyperactivity is a high level of behaviour that is often characterised by lack of control rather than the volume of behaviour.’ However, Booton, Cooper, Easton Harper (2012) argue that children with hyperactivity are unable to sit still, have poor concentration and impulsive behaviour. I agree with Booton, Cooper, Easton Harper (2012) because these are the challenging characteristics that appear in children who are hyperactive. In contrast to Goodman and Scott (1997), I believe hyperactivity does not necessarily occur due to lack of control. There may be high volumes of hyperactivity that can be controlled through behaviour management strategies (BMS) such as positive reinforcement,†¦show more content†¦Their definition includes the symptoms of hyperactivity and ADHD but the distinction between the two has not been identified. The distinction between ADHD and hyperactivity is that, ADHD is a neurological develop mental disorder which is required to be diagnosed Lauth et al (2006). Whereas hyperactivity is the regular pattern of inattention, impulsiveness and over activity McLaughlin (2004) by which diagnosis is not obligatory. Roger (2003) argues that teachers should develop a personal plan for hyperactive behaviour (HB) which focuses on academic survival skills and is centred in a supportive one-to-one programme emphasising positive role play. I believe this (BMS) may not work on all students, for example, children in Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS) (2008). In EYFS (2008) teaching is often done through play, where the child learns through games and physical activity. At this stage of their education, they are learning through positive role play. In contrast to Roger (2003), children in EYFS do not require academic survival skills as they have not been academically prepared for the future. Moreover, Leaman (2009) suggests that teachers should encourage children to take responsibility of their actions by setting up a reward system to motivate children. Bowen, Jensen Clark (2004) argue that contingent verbal praise should be associated with the delivery of any tangible or token reinforcer, then as

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Pressure Injury Identification And Prevention In Emergency Department

Question: Discuss about the Pressure Injury Identification And Prevention In Emergency Department. Answer: Project topic Pressure injury identification and prevention: Pressure injury are commonly called as pressure sores. Pressure sores are the regions on the skin that get damaged due to constant friction or pressure in emergency departments. Pressure sores develop in persons who lack mobility like the older patients, patients who are confined to chair, also the bed ridden patients in the emergency departments. The other names of the pressure sores are pressure ulcers, bed sores and decubitus ulcers (Cushing and Phillips 2013). The regions of the skin that has bones underneath, like the elbows, heels, back of head, tailbone are the major areas of the patient that get affected in the emergency department. These regions do not receive the adequate amount of blood flow, that is why such regions develop the sores or injuries. There are several ways to identify pressure injuries in an emergency department. The skin that gets affected by pressure shows discoloration usually in blue, purple color, skin loss from the affected area develop a patch of dead cells. Prevention of the pressure injury in an emergency department is the prime motive of my work. Hence, devising a plan includes the identification of the pressure injuries and its effective prevention. The plan in involves everyday skin care, change in diet plans, providing support devices, and changing lying or sitting posture in an emergency department (Ausili et al. 2013). Project idea justification (Mini) Pressure injuries are common in old patients who are either bed ridden or confined to wheel chair in the emergency departments. Such patients or the old people that are affected by the pressure injuries are incapable of taking their own care. That is why knowledge of identifying and prevention of the pressure injuries need to be developed among the nurses so that pressure injuries in the emergency departments can be identified well before they develop (Bogie, Powell and Ho 2012). Pressure injury has certain complication that if left untreated can lead several worsening medical conditions in the emergency departments. Implications like cancer due to squamous cell carcinoma, joint and bone infections, pus collection in the dead cells, inflammation of the tissues, and even sepsis can develop within the patients that are affected by the pressure injuries in emergency departments. According to Bulfone et al. (2012), the patients in the emergency department often experience pressure injuri es because patients lie on the for longer periods without changing sides. Hence, there are chances where they might develop pressure injuries on the elbow and back. Question that may arise The major risk factor that can arise in this project are the malnutrition, obesity, blood circulation disorders, smoking, paralysis and immobilization. Hence, failure to deal with these situation or occurrences in the emergency department can lead to increased incidence of pressure injuries and can be fatal for the patients. References Ausili, E., Paolucci, V., Triarico, S., Maestrini, C., Murolo, D., Focarelli, B. and Rendeli, C.L.A.U.D.I.A., 2013. Treatment of pressure sores in spina bifida patients with calcium alginate and foam dressings.Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci,17(12), pp.1642-7. Bogie, K., Powell, H.L. and Ho, C.H., 2012. New concepts in the prevention of pressure sores.Handb Clin Neurol,109, pp.235-246. Bulfone, G., Marzoli, I., Quattrin, R., Fabbro, C. and Palese, A., 2012. A longitudinal study of the incidence of pressure sores and the associated risks and strategies adopted in Italian operating theatres.Journal of perioperative practice,22(2), pp.50-56. Cushing, C.A. and Phillips, L.G., 2013. Evidence-based medicine: pressure sores.Plastic and reconstructive surgery,132(6), pp.1720-1732.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

John Keats La Belle Dame Sans Merci Analysis Essay Example For Students

John Keats La Belle Dame Sans Merci Analysis Essay John Keats ?La Belle Dame Sans Merci?SPeech is where you make speeches. â€Å"La Belle Dame sans Merci† In â€Å"La Belle Dame sans Merci,† John Keats’ stresses the idea that beauty is only skin deep and also lies in the eye of the beholder. Through the use of two speakers, Keats’ is able to portray his theme by means of a story. As the poem begins, the reader meets the first speaker. As we read on, we come to find out that this is a passer-by. We also find out the state of the other speaker, â€Å"wretched Wight.† Sounds so full of life. We also find out the setting. â€Å"The sedge is wither’d from the lake, /And no birds sing.† Again, the reader sees the lack of life in the setting. As the first speaker continues, he starts to interrogate the other man. â€Å"†¦what can ail thee†¦?† He describes the man as â€Å"a lily on thy brow, with anguish moist and fever dew.† This translated more than likely indicates that the man is sad. He has also lost the color in his cheeks by stating, â€Å"on thy cheek a fading rose.† Now, it is time for the other speaker to respond. His first remark is the route of his problem†¦Ã¢â‚¬ I met a lady.† Wow, cut, print, we have ourselves the beginning of the majority of problems men face. He has met a woman. He then starts to describe her as if in a trance â€Å"Full beautiful, a faery’s child. † The woman is made out to be a goddess. He furthers his description with â€Å"Her hair was long, her foot was light, /And her eyes were wild.† Through stating her attributes in past tense, the second speaker is relaying that she is no longer there. Now the second speaker (for the sake of understanding, we shall call him Sark), Sark is describing what they did together. â€Å" set her on pacing steed.† And she sat like a true lady and they were merry. She took him into â€Å"her elfin grot† and the laid together. She â€Å"look’d at as she did love him. † By this saying, it can be presumed that she did not really love him, but only acted like it because of the gifts he was bestowing upon her. As he fell asleep, Sark had a dream. He dreamt that â€Å" saw pale kings, and princes too, /Pale warriors, death-pale were they all.† These men can be presumed as others who had fallen for this woman and had come to the same misery as him. Sark wakes up and finds himself alone â€Å"On the cold hillside.† He then continues to explain that is why the passer-by found him where he is, where â€Å"the sedge is wither’d from the lake, /And no bird sings.† This is a true story of falling in love with the beauty and not the person. The man fell for her like a rock in water. He gave up everything for her and she left him. But in retrospect, when the title of the poem is translated, it turns out she is the â€Å"beautiful woman without pity.† Speech and Communcations

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Church Planting Essay Example

Church Planting Essay Indigenous Church Planting A Book Review On Church Growth International A Practical Journey Charles Brock By: Michael Stilley Fusion Church Planting U-MS 410 Book Review Page 1 Indigenous Church Planting was written by Charles Brock in the year of 1994. Charles and his wife were church planters for 26 years. They have planted churches both in the United States and in foreign countries. Charles, Dottie, and their 3 kids spent 25 years in the Philippines serving with the Philippine Baptist Mission. Charles has written many other books like Philippines, the Joyous Journey and Let This Mind Be in You. Indigenous Church Planting was written for the purpose of equipping the reader with information about indigenous church planting. The author wrote this book because he sees a need for a new, fresh vision in church planters. There are many different methods that you can take when planting a church. Indigenous church planting is very exciting and its success depends only upon the Holy Spirit. Without the Holy Spirit, church planting will never be successful. I believe that the author accomplished his goal by giving us information about indigenous church planting according to his own past experiences. In my opinion, Indigenous Church Planting is a very good book because I really like the way that Charles Brock told us about his personal experience as a church planter. When reading about his stories, I was on the edge of my seat because it made me so excited. I have always loved reading books about missionaries that go to a rural environment and plant churches. My heart is definitely burdened when it comes to foreigners that need to hear the gospel of Christ. When I hear of church planters going to tough places it makes so excited because I strongly believe that God’s will is for me to do the same. We will write a custom essay sample on Church Planting specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Church Planting specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Church Planting specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer I also like how the author broke the book into two sections. Because of this, I can really understand the main theme of both of the sections in Indigenous Church Planting. In chapter two of Indigenous Church Planting, the author talks about how the first essential in church planting is the Holy Spirit. I firmly agree with the author when he says that without the Holy Spirit, we are nothing. A church plant cannot be successful without the work of the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit opens and closes doors that we could never open or close ourselves. Church planting can be a very stressful thing to do. Without the Holy Spirit, church planting would be impossible. I also agree with Charles Brock when he talks about excessive baggage. Excessive baggage can be material things like money or other possessions. It can also be something like singular leadership in a church. Excessive baggage can really be a hindrance for believers in the church. Charles Brock did a phenomenal job writing this book and I honestly do not disagree with anything that he wrote about. Indigenous Church Planting is one of my favorite books because it has really impacted my life in a positive way. In Seven Steps for Planting Churches, I was really informed about church planting. In my opinion, I like this book a lot more than Seven Steps for Planting Churches because it has a lot more personal experience in it. The author tells countless stories about his experience in the Philippines and in America. The Lord has really used this book to help me understand more about what it means to be a church planter and also the risks of being a church planter. I am actually going to look into some of Charles Brock’s Bible Studies so that I can gain more knowledge and understanding about church planting.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Taking and Bringing

Taking and Bringing Taking and Bringing Taking and Bringing By Maeve Maddox Carol Roberts Smith asks: Why can’t we ‘take’ anything anywhere anymore? Why do we have to ‘bring’ it. It sounds weird to me to say bring or brought. ‘I brought lunch to work’ I can live with, but ‘I have to bring this back to the store’ makes no sense to me. I’m taking it back to the store one way or another. Help me understand please. I notice it on TV a lot now too. Thanks! Both bring and take have numerous meanings. One can, for example, take medicine, take the Fifth, take a liking to, take it on the chin, take a partner, take in a stray, take up for a friend, take out a date, and take an oath. One can bring to bear, bring tears to the eyes, bring something up, and challenge someone to bring it on. The OED entry for take lists 93 numbered definitions. The one for bring has 27 numbered definitions. The definition that concerns us here is Number One: bring:  1. To cause to come along with oneself; to fetch. It includes ‘lead’ or ‘conduct’ (F. amener) as well as ‘carry’ (F. apporter); it implies motion towards the place where the speaker or auditor is, or is supposed to be, being in sense the causal of come; motion in the opposite direction is expressed by take (Fr. emmener, emporter).  Ã‚   When the words are used to express the conveying of something or someone to or from a given point, the choice between bring and take is clear: If the person or thing is going away from where you are, use take. If the object or person is coming to where you are, use bring. Some examples of the correct use of bring and take: Im taking this blender back to the store. Im taking my girlfriend to the movies. Please bring your wife to the party. Dont forget to bring me that book next time you visit. Jacquelyn Landis has also written a DWT post on bring and take for DWT. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Vocabulary category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Useful Stock Phrases for Your Business EmailsThe Letter "Z" Will Be Removed from the English Alphabet50 Plain-Language Substitutions for Wordy Phrases

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Draft Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 3

Draft - Essay Example s idea, the paper will suppose that the continents of today were separated and that the seas between them were impassable, trade between continents is impossible and that refrigeration is impossible due to the laws of physics. The paper will analyze how the African continent would be look like today in terms of resources crops, climate, health, culture, lifestyle and economically. Globalization has resulted into changes that have affected different continents differently. As Jared Diamond argues, the continents would be different without globalization. Although globalization has had positive effects, it has deprived some continents of their resources. A good example of such a continent is Africa. If refrigeration were impossible, African continents would not be facing the environmental problems it is facing. However, ecological processes do not recognize continental boundaries. The climate changes affecting the globe are mainly from activities from a few continents. Asia, Europe, and America are emitting gases, which are causing global warming. However, the African continent is suffering the consequences of the global warming. If refrigeration were impossible African continent, which mainly focuses on farming activities would be a richer continent. African would not have to take responsibility of actions by other continents (â€Å"Economic Commission for Afr ica†, Web). Africa is endowed with numerous resources. One such resource is oil. Some of the main distributors of oil include Libya, Angola, and Nigeria. However, due to globalization, most countries in Africa import their oil from other regions of the world. If trade between continents were impossible, African countries would trade amongst themselves, which would be cheaper. Other resources that the African regions have include copper, coal, diamond, copper, gold, timber, platinum, tanzanite, and other ores. Agriculturally, some regions of African continent such as South Africa and East Africa have fertile

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

International Business Environment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words - 1

International Business Environment - Essay Example Once a British colony, Kuwait's independence was granted in 1961. Throughout, its economy's survival is almost entirely bolstered by its oil production and sales. With the income, the government can have considerable support for its revenues, and attract in foreign workers (Factsheet, 2007). When Iraq under Saddam Hussein absorbed Kuwait in the 1990s, Iraq was overthrown from the country by a US-led military coalition, an event known as the 1991 Gulf war. With that aid, Kuwait became a close ally of the US (Factsheet, 2007). As IMF and the World Bank encouraged most of the countries to do, Kuwait opened to foreign capital and vied for international investment starting from the 1990s. Mainly, Kuwait's strategy is to produce and sell as much oil as they can worldwide that it would become largely, the sole provider of the world's oil and US would certainly have it in its interests. (Pfeifer, 2002) Being the fourth largest producer now, this isn't a far-fetch goal. FDI had been advocated by many to be the boost developing economies need in order to progress sustainably. Globalization through FDI is a mainstream event since the 90s. But policymakers in Kuwait as in the other developing countries are not aware that when their economic fundamentals do not match what is needed for this increase in FDI, however many the incentives they offer to attract FDI , they would just go to waste. But, internationalization through exports is Kuwait's overriding strategy; it is a country looking toward development by globalizing through FDI. (Nunnenkamp, 2001) Kuwait's Foreign Direct Investment A costly financial initiative like the later-to-be-discussed FDI Law is implemented because Kuwait anticipates the potential benefits to outweigh these costs. But the view's shortcoming is that Kuwait, like the others, cannot be sure if FDI really could do much in gearing them towards development. After all, the impact of FDI relies on many

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Biblical Writings Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Biblical Writings - Essay Example "Torah" is a Hebrew term meaning 'teaching' or 'instruction', which is used to refer to the Five Books of Moses, otherwise known as Pentateuch, which include Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers and Deuteronomy. However, the term is also used to refer to the entire Jewish bible and to the entire Jewish law and teachings, in its broadest sense. The Talmud may be realized as one of the central texts of conventional Judaism which incorporates the rabbinic teachings concerning Jewish law, ethics, customs and history, and it has two components: Mishnah and Gemara. The Hebrew term Mishnah (or Mishna), which means 'repetition', can be comprehended as the earliest written redaction of the Jewish oral traditions and it can refer to the entire tradition of the Oral Torah. The second component of the Talmud, known as the Gemara, is a collection of rabbinical commentaries and studies of the Mishnah. The terms such as Hebrew Bible, Jewish scripture, Old Testament, and First Testament are closely c onnected, because all these refer to the same scripture in different traditions. Thus, the Hebrew Bible refers to the books of the Jewish Bible (also known as Tanakh), which is known as the Old Testament in Christian Biblical canon. Similarly, First Testament is another term used for the familiar term Old Testament, referring to the first section of the Christian Biblical canon. Therefore, Tanakh, Torah, Mishnah, Gemara, Talmud, Hebrew Bible, Jewish scripture, Old Testament, and First Testament are important terms used to refer to the various Scriptures, books, traditions etc in the Jewish and Christian religion. A profound source criticism of the Bible refers to significant designations such as J (Jahwist), E (Elohist), P (Priestly), D (Deutoronomist), and Q (Quelle) and these terms denotes the major sources of the Old Testament and the New Testament. One of the major developments in source criticism of the Bible has been the "documentary hypothesis", according to which the first five books of the Old Testament ((known as the Pentateuch) were comprised of four major sources such as J (Jahwist), E (Elohist), P (Priestly), and D (Deutoronomist). The Jahwist (J), one of the four major sources of the Torah, is the oldest source according to the "documentary hypothesis" and it refers to God as Yahweh. The second source of the Torah, known as the Elohist (E), refers to God as Elohim and presents God as less anthropomorphic to Yahweh of the earlier Jahwist source. The most recent of the four chief sources of the Torah is the Priestly Source (P) emphasizes the laws of Moses and priestly duties. The fourth source of the Torah, i.e. the Deuteronomist (D), considers the texts of Scripture as products of human intellect. Therefore, the Jahwist, the Elohist, the Priestly, and the Deutoronomist are the four major sources of the Torah, according to the "documentary hypothesis". It is also important to recognize these four sources were in the long run combined into the Pentateuch to organize the first five books of the Old Testament. Source criticism of the New Testament introduces one to the term Q (Quelle), which refers to an earlier, lost source of the Gospels. Significantly, the German word 'Quelle' means 'source' and this lost textual source was central to the origin of the Gospels, especially the Gospel of Matthew and the Gospel of Luke. Part

Friday, November 15, 2019

Relationship Between Project Management And Leadership Management Essay

Relationship Between Project Management And Leadership Management Essay Executive Summary The following report is critical analysis of Lenovo Groups leadership approach, problems, project planning and decisions made by leadership in the company. Lenovo Groups predecessor was founded in Beijing by few scientists as an enterprise of the Computer Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1981. Dell and HP who were the masters in Personal Computer products were facing difficulties in localizing their business before 2004 in the Chinese market. At that time they were not a serious issue to Lenovo. They did not create any threat to Lenovo. But when Lenovo started its expansion in 2004 its strategy was affected by the strategies followed by HP and Dell. Lenovo than modify its strategies in order to gain competitive advantage, increase its market share and improve its performance. We will see in following report that how Lenovo adopted project management and leadership strategies in order to overcome the challenges faced in establishing its brand in the Personal Computer ma rket. How Lenovo focused on customers, resisting bureaucracy, and cutting across boundaries thinking globally, demonstrating enormous energy and being able to energize and invigorate others. Leadership style at Lenovo is in general of two types people oriented described as democratic. Project managers at Lenovo organization are both leaders and followers. The project managers leadership position at Lenovo encompasses interpersonal role, informational role and a decision maker role. Lenovo sent many managers to observe highly successful organization where the leadership factors of speed, the bias of action and utter customer fixation have helped drive this high discount store to success. In the result of adaptation of leadership strategies they improved the teamwork and finally Project-oriented approach of company improved international integration. 1. INTRODUCTION Background Working Title The importance of team work in project management- A case study of Lenovo Introduction to Project Management Project management is a disciple that intends to co-ordinate, plan, and control and organizes the diverse and complex activities of todays commercial, industrial, management and Information Technology projects. There is one general characteristic shared in common by all the projects the projection of thoughts, concepts and ideas into new endeavors. Project Leadership: Pulling together the science of project management with effective leadership judgment is the essence of project leadership. The dizzying array of suggestions for leadership combined with the time sensitive project completion challenges create a need for a new model. The model developed offers guidance on how and when to apply leadership principles to the various stages of a project. The definition of project leadership is the systematic application of leadership understanding and skills at each stage of a project lifecycle. Statement of the Problem: Giants like Dell and HP who were the masters in Personal Computer products were facing difficulties in localizing their business before 2004 in the Chinese market. At that time they were not a serious issue to Lenovo. They did not create any threat to Lenovo. When Lenovo started its expansion in 2004 its competitive strategy was affected by the strategies followed by HP and Dell. Lenovo had to modify its strategies in order to gain competitive advantage, increase its market share and improve its performance. This essay discusses how Lenovo adopted project management and leadership strategies in order to overcome the challenges faced in establishing its brand in the Personal Computer market. Background of the study: The Personal Computer industry has been developing by bounds and leaps nowadays. In 2007 the sales of Personal Computers around the world were estimated to about 250 billion units. This represents 10% increase over the previous year. Lenovo is one of the leading Personal Computer manufacturers. It has a product line which includes servers, storage devices, projectors, and printer supplies, computing accessories, mobile handsets, printers, digital products and computing services. The primary business of Lenovo is Personal Computer. It was estimated to yield about 98% of the turnover of the company [Larson, 2009]. In May 2005 Lenovo acquired IBMs Personal Computing Division. After that Lenovo has witnessed accelerating growth in business and expansion of market share. Its share penetrated into the overseas markets too. Lenovo transferred its headquarters from China to USA, Raleigh, North Carolina. Today, the Lenovo group has branch offices in sixty six countries around the world. It has business operations in 170 countries and employs over 30,000 people worldwide. Lenovo is organized into 4 geographical units: America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Greater China and Asia-Pacific. Within each geographical unit there are functional departments that include transportation, marketing and sales, production and supply chain management. Outside of Greater China the sales compromises of 60% of the total turnover of the company in the next quarter of 2008. About Lenovo: Lenovo Groups predecessor was founded in Beijing in 1984 by Liu Chuanzhi and ten other computer scientists as an enterprise of the Computer Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In the first years Lenovo was a small distributor of imported foreign branded computers then the company started producing its self branded desktops in 1990 and since then evolved into chinas leading computer firm. In 1997 the brand became chinas top selling PC desktop brand. By 2006 the brand holds the market leadership and over 25% share in china for more than eight consecutive years plus some brand presence in Asia, competing against brands such as Dell, HP and Toshiba. Over the years Lenovo has also diversified into other PC products such as portables, workstations, and servers as well as into mobile phones and digital entertainment products [Lewis, 2006]. Due to the fact that Lenovo spun off its foreign branded distribution business, which accounted for a third of their revenues, as a new listed company at Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2001, annual growth rates were moderate with 12% in 1998-2004. Lenovo group itself is already listed at Hong Kong Stock Exchange since 1994 and gained total revenues of United States $ 2.9bn in 2004, over 90% of thereof in china. In 2000 Lenovo Group announced to aim at total revenue of United States 10bn by 2005 and to become one of the Fortune Global 500 companies by 2010 ate latest. Since 2003 they have also wanted to become a global leading brand and to generate 25% of their revenues in overseas markets by 2006. In May 2005 Lenovo already came closer to these goals when they acquired IBMs PC Division for United States $1.7bn, including their global brands ThinkPad and ThinkCentre. The acquisition made the Lenovo Group into the worlds third largest PC vendor, with around United States $13bn in annual revenue, 60% thereof abroad, and products serving enterprises and consumers in more than 160 countries. Lenovos new executive headquarters moved from Beijing to purchase, New York with principal operations in Beijing and Raleigh, North Carolina and an enterprise sales organization worldwide, including sales headquarters in New York, Paris, Beijing and Sydney. The company operates six manufacturing sites in China and India and runs nine RD centres in different countries, employing more than 19000 people. The below figure shows the worldwide revenues of Lenovo: Figure 2: Worldwide revenues of Lenovo Source: Larson, 2009, Project Management, Watermark Learning, Inc., New Jersey According to Meng Yutian (2006) Lenovos Group senior supervisor of brand management in Beijing, the new groups advantages lie in technology innovation and a strong combination of both consumer PC retailing and b2b client handling. She admitted that Dell has a more efficient supply chain which is to be challenged by their ongoing post merger integrations with IBM PCs. Lenovo is also implementing a new global brand strategy to match its new worldwide reach. Lenovos priority is to maintain and extend the brand equities of the brands Lenovo, ThinkPad, ThinkCentre and Lianxiang in all major markets worldwide. Relevant Research Relationship between Leadership and Project Management: A project is a short term endeavor undertaken to create a unique service or product. Every project has elements such as uncertainty and risk associated with it. They might sometime lead to the failure of the project. Increase in project costs, lack of resources, erroneous development are few examples of risk in projects. These unforeseen circumstances and failures are common in all types of projects irrespective of their industry. The main objective of project management is to predict or forecast maximum number of risks and problems that would be encountered while completing the project and plan, control and organize the project related activities such that the project is successfully completed despite all hindrances [Davidson F J, 2003]. The process of project management should begin even before any resource is assigned and should last till the complete set of activities is done. The ultimate aim and objective of a project manager should be focused towards earning the satisfaction of purchaser, project sponsor, principal stakeholders and customers and deliver the project within the promised time limit without incurring more cost and spending excess of resources than that were originally budgeted, planned or allocated. Project management is the application of skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements. This requires project managers to understand the project objectives, limitations, lifecycle and roles of the participants. It also suggests that project managers should possess a variety of essential skills. Every project has an objective that is a reason for performing the project. This objective can implement a new computer system, by constructing a building merging 2 companies or developing a new product. Each objective has 2 considerations: Scope and quality. Every project has one or more limitations on how well and how quickly the objectives can be achieved. These limitations frequently include budget, resources, time and technology. The limitations create risks that the objectives may not be met and these risks need to be identified. Project Lifecycle: All projects have a lifecycle. That is there are certain predictable events that will take place in the life of every project. The wise project leader will understand this lifecycle and plan for it. The alternative is to be surprised when leading a project. Understanding the project lifecycle is part of the science of project leadership in that it can be studied, there is a definite process that can be followed and project leaders can learn what they need to do at each stage. A simple and a generic project lifecycle model is used. The basic stages of this model can be identified and the project leadership tasks must be accomplished during each stage will apply to most projects in most industries. Projects in certain may have additional unique project leadership responsibilities. Even on very small projects however the intent of the responsibilities identifies the needs to be understood and accomplished. By understanding the most typical project leadership responsibilities a skilled project leader can scale up or down the complexity depending upon the person who leads the project [Harold, 2009]. To achieve success in the project the organization need to use a collection of skills that demonstrate their ability to lead a team. The organization is working with others and use others skills to energize and direct a diverse group of people to always give a high performance. These people come from different parts of the organization, each having its own culture through the leadership style of the departmental manager. People have to overcome these cultural variations to create a climate of co-operation and co-ordinate the efforts of the team members without direct line authority. There is a diverse range of options about what makes an effective leader. There are no common characteristics that the organization must have to be effective, without which they are doomed to fail. At the core of leadership is their skill at influencing the behavior of people to achieve their objectives [Martin, 1997]. Autocratic Leadership: One extreme of leadership style is autocrat, where the leader should tell people about what they do to approach. The other extreme is the democrat where information is shared the organization will consult widely and ask people to do the work using a will you approach. The reality is that they adopt a style that is often subconsciously directed by: The situation and the prevailing environment; The type of work, its priority and urgency; The way the team reacts and behaves in the environment. In the crisis most people will tend to adopt a more autocratic style in the interest of getting a quick result. No time exists for consultation, ideas and suggestions are not encouraged and consensus is avoided. The actions required are dictated in command and control mode. Democratic Leadership: The democratic style is regarded as slower encouraging people to give their ideas and opinions always seeking a consensus so the team is fully involved and well motivated to achieve results [Jack M R, 2008]. The leaders of an effective project leader: A list of desirable qualities includes: Flexibility and adaptability; Ability to demonstrate significant initiative; Assertiveness, confidence and verbal fluency; Ambition, drive and commitment; Effective communication and god listening skills; Enthusiasm, imagination and creativity; Being well organized and self disciplined; Being a generalist rather than a specialist having technical awareness; Being able to identify and facilitate problem solving; Being able to make and take decisions promptly; Ability to promote a motivating climate; Ability to keep everyone focused on the project objectives; Having been trained in project management tools and techniques; Being experienced in project management processes and procedures; Being respected by peers and management; Being concerned to achieve success. A program or a project is a specialized situation because of the nature of the work, which is time and cost constrained; the diverse range of skills and experience of people the organization dont know well. To achieve the objectives the organization must see some particular skills to: Ensure that the project tasks are completed on time to the quality desired; Create co-ordination between the team members and develop team work; Support the individual team members and develop their skills for the work; These three key elements of the leadership role are related and interdependent and the organization cannot ignore any one at the expense of the others. They are all directed in one fundamental direction towards the objectives. The actions which the organizations take at each stage of the work are focused on maintaining the balance of these three elements, adopting a range of styles according to the prevailing situation. However in any programme or project there are others involved [Kathy, 2009]. Dimensions of the leadership in project management: The below figure shows the relationship between the key elements of leadership, the objectives and the stakeholders: Figure 3: Relationship between the key elements of leadership, the objectives and the stakeholders Source: Harold, 2009, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, 10th edition, New York The organization spends much of their time inner directed, focusing on the three key elements. They must also spend time outer directed to understand the needs and expectations of their stakeholders, use their skills when appropriate and keep them informed of progress. They must engage their stakeholders and ignore them. They can influence their programmes or project at any time with serious consequences to progress. They can change their minds at any time cause delays and demand changes to their plans [Weiss, 1992]. There are three essential dimensions of leadership in project management. They are: Identifying and managing the stakeholders until completion achieved; Managing the project dynamic lifecycle from definition through planning and execution to closure all the tasks of the programme or project; Managing the performance and that of the team and the stakeholders. Success is directly related to balancing the time and effort they give to each of these dimensions from the start up until they hand over the results to their customer. Theories/ Principles of Leadership with reference to Project Management: The five leadership principles for project success are as follows: Build Vision: Sharing a common vision and goals and having the same understanding about tracking the progress toward this vision is one of the key factors is the success of a project and team. Nurture collaboration: A performing team yields synergy effects the impossible becomes possible. This is why active team collaboration is crucial. Promote Performance: Planning is good and important. At the end of the day the leader and their team have to perform. As a leader it is their responsibility to create an environment that promotes performance on both the individual and team levels. Cultivate Learning: As humans everyone makes mistakes. Effective leaders encourage their teams to explore new avenues and to make mistakes and learn from them. An effective leader builds in sufficient time for the team to learn, create and innovate. Ensure results: Delivering results is both a prerequisite and an outcome of effective project leadership. Project delivery is a team effort, not an individual effort. The effective project leader builds and guides the team to deliver results by incorporating the first four leadership principles. All five leadership principles combined encompass the core of effective project leadership [Richard L, 1995]. Project Leadership Pyramid: The below figure shows the Project Leadership Pyramid: Figure 3: Project Leadership Pyramid Source: Martin, 1997, The Project Management for Project Teams, Singapore Together the five leadership principles described here we build the project leadership pyramid. The principles at the top of this pyramid are the first principle build vision is followed by nurture collaboration, promote performance, cultivate learning and at the base of the pyramid ensure the results. The pyramid is a powerful image. This image is used for a simple reason: that is although think building vision is probably the most important principle of effective leadership. Most people see the bottom line as the results. Thus the vision is at the top and the results are at the foundation of the pyramid. They are framed by vision and results. When a pyramid is approached from a far distance first the top should be seen. But in this case vision is the top of the pyramid. As we get closer we see more of the pyramid until we are standing in the first row of the building blocks. We feel overwhelmed by the size of the pyramid. It is not possible to see the top of the pyramid. Lenovos leadership strategies: As an MNC Lenovo is headquartered in Raleigh and has branches in 66 countries and sales operations in more than 50 countries around the world. Lenovo is a global company with major research centers in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, China; Yamato, Japan; and Research Triangle Park, North Carolina; and primary operational hubs in Beijing, Research Triangle Park, Singapore and Paris. Lenovo operates manufacturing and/or assembly facilities in China, India, the United States and Mexico with a total of approximately 25,000 employees in 2007. To tide over the recent economic crisis Lenovo announced a global restructuring in January 2009, streamlining America which expected to result in a saving of US$ 300 million. In two decades founder Liu Chuanzhi has successfully transformed, Lenovo from a small state owned enterprise into a flagship joint stock conglomerate that is largely owned by overseas investors. Under Liu Lenovo established an option plan and incentive mechanism which enabled a large number of young people embarks on the first line of leadership positions. Meanwhile Liu combined the modern Western management theories with the practice of Chinese enterprises, and put forward management ideas such as a roof model of corporate governance theory. Lius core philosophy is to build a team, set a strategy and organize a team. People believe such as practical and effective approach has contributed to Lenovos success as a large modern company with international competitive edge. Leadership Style at Lenovo: An important part of the leadership is the style of leadership with which the leader carries out the role. In todays environment where it is necessary to have good ideas from every position in the organization, those people whose management styles suppress and intimidate are not needed. Lenovo proclaims high priorities for focusing on customers, resisting bureaucracy, and cutting across boundaries thinking globally, demonstrating enormous energy and being able to energize and invigorate others. Lenovo sent many managers to observe highly successful organization where the leadership factors of speed, the bias of action and utter customer fixation have helped drive this high discount store to success [Davidson, 1996]. Leadership style at Lenovo is in general of two types: people oriented described as democratic, permissive, consensus-seeking, participative, follower-oriented and considerate, and task centered, described as structured, task dominated, restrictive, directive, autocratic and socially distant. Task oriented leadership style usually is associated with productivity but may depress follower satisfaction whereas people centered leadership tends to enhance group cohesiveness but not consistently increase productivity. The following are the leadership styles adopted at Lenovo for project management: Project leadership is an interpersonal and strategic process, which seeks to influence the project stakeholders to work toward closure of the project purposes. Project leadership takes place through interaction not in isolation. Project managers at Lenovo organization are both leaders and followers, operating in a culture where both formal and informal networking relationships proliferate. In such relationships networking goes beyond the project managers formal authority, often leading to the use of influence over peers and superiors to affect the outcome of the project. The project managers leadership position at Lenovo encompasses three fundamental roles: an interpersonal role, which includes figurehead and leader in liaison functions; an informational role, which entails disseminating information and acting as a spokesperson; and a decision maker role, in which the project manager acts as entrepreneur, resource allocator and negotiator. Project leaders are the people who do the right thing; project managers are the people who do the things right. Lenovo recognizes that both the roles are important in management but they differ profoundly [Bagherpour M, 2010]. There are according to Lenovo people in senior positions in organizations doing the wrong thing well. Part of the fault for having people do the wrong thing may well lie with their schools of management, where they teach people to be good management technicians but they fail to train people for leadership. Lenovo goes further to identify the competencies found in people who exhibit effective leadership in their proven track records: Management of attention Management of trust Management of meaning Management of self. Challenges faced by Lenovo Lenovo, which entered the US market, as a fresher, in 2004, did not have any idea about how to compete with the leaders HP and Dell in gaining the market share. Lenovo decided to follow a project- centric approach in order to find a place for itself in the personal computer market. The project-focused approach became the limelight of the companys success story in future. Conclusion Recommendations Solutions to the problem identified: In order to address the challenges, Lenovo proposed different changes in its business strategy and model in 2004, by employing a project-focused approach to develop its corporate strategy. The particular steps taken to implement the project management as a tool to execute the corporate strategy are: After the confirmation of the overall corporate strategy of company, Lenovo sets to organize the priority tasks which require co-operation of multi-department into projects, which is known as strategic projects. Strategic projects vary from the Research and Design projects. In Research and Design projects the cost and time will not be used as yardsticks for success of the project. Such projects will be about expanding them into new markets, solves the underlying problems, enhances the organizational efficiency, integrates the strategic resources or improves the capabilities and satisfaction of an employee. In the past, some strategic planning was not followed up adequately but the strategic project management application solves this problem and the strategic projects started to execute and provides the necessary results. Lenovo selected strategic alliances or joint ventures with global corporations such as Visa, Coca-Cola, Disney, and Pacific Century Cyber Works and so on as its entry model which effectively reduced the risk of international expansion and shortened the time to enter the target market. Second Lenovo sought to optimize the process of supply chain. In order to increase the efficiency of its global supply chain, Lenovo made strong commitment to continuously improve its management process and has so far achieved remarkable progress. By simplifying its global supply chain infrastructure including its logistics network, Lenovo further enhanced its service capacity by 10% with each computers cost of end to end supply chain reduced by 17% as compared with 2008 [Goodman R A, 1967]. Third Lenovo strived to refocus its corporate attention on the key and emerging markets in the world. In 2004 consumer PC accounted for above 42% of the global PC market. The key for Lenovo was to expand its business scale by replicating the successful experience in china to the other areas. In this regard Lenovo won an impressive array of contracts in India and ASEAN countries through effective marketing strategies. Lenovo also outperformed the industry in key emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey. Meanwhile Lenovo made important progress in adjusting to the changing market conditions and accelerated its expansion in the fast growing industry segments with a belief that such rapid growth is expected to continue in the coming years. Lenovo attempted to expand both relational and transactional business models. In 2006 Lenovos relational business increased in all areas. After making efforts on the adjustment of customer segmentation and customer relational management, Lenovos profitability raised by a large margin. In future Lenovos business focus is expected to remain on providing services to key customers and improving the share in the medium sized enterprises market. In contrast in 2006 Lenovos transactional business accounted for 35% of the sales of global PC market. Looking forward to maintain sustainable growth, Lenovo continued to develop its business partners through marketing activities, accelerate the development of emerging markets and enhance the performance ability in some countries as well as to expand the productivity and the channel coverage of its sales teams [Gray C F, 2005]. Lenovo aimed to establish a global brand. In 2006, Lenovo had done a superb job in marketing and brand building by sponsoring the Olympic Games, ATT Williams Formula one team and the NBA games. To raise the awareness and image of the brand the group launched a publicity campaign for two of its major products which has in turn helped enhance Lenovos brand visualization: ThinkPad ultra slim X300 made the cover of Business Week as soon as it appeared on the market and the Idea Pad U110 won three major awards on international consumer electronics show in Las Vegas, the United States. Through those efforts Lenovo had made a deeper impression in the international arenas and gained rapid recognition consequently the image of Lenovo brand had improved by 13% according to a survey. Project Management and Leadership Solutions: Lenovo established a Project Management Office to coordinate the strategic projects. In 2004 and early 2005, Lenovo put the organizational structure and the processes for its Project Management Office. It formalized the relationships between the Project Management Office and strategic leaders and budget resources for the office. Constantly all other departmental regulations of Lenovo needed to conform to the regulations of Project Management Office, with brief regulations which was outlined by particular departments of business. However, the Project Management Office of Lenovo did not interfere with the projects often; or it offered training and establishes standard procedures. The employees of Lenovo saw the Project Management Office as a resource rather than a facility of administration. Designing a Project Management Office as a facility of administration was one of thing that had condemned such offices in the past, but Lenovos office thrived to win an excellent team award for the company. The company believed that specific conditions should exist to utilize the project management successfully: First, the company has to face a challenge; second, the office had to be prioritized by the leadership of the company; third, the office had to be led by a professional team and they had to guarantee that company-specific systems are developed; and finally, they also required to confirm that the organizational culture of the company could be appreciated. Otherwise it was difficult to evaluate. Lenovo also earmarked money for strategic implementation. Previously, it finished the strategic plans which were not supported financially. But with the shift of strategy, the leadership team had to set aside extra money to evaluate the projects outside the original budget and provided bonus for those who were involved and paved way for the execution of the strategic plans successfully. Identifying Valuing project management professionals- Lenovo sent their top talent in project management to take the certification exam of Project Management Professional and apply for project management standards [Project Management Institute, 2008]. The certification of Project Management Office is managed and developed by the Institute of Project Management, which is the biggest institute for professional project management in the world. The certification of Project Management Profe

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Minority Movements Essay -- Politics, Civil Rights Movement

During the 1900’s many minority and ethnic groups including African Americans, Mexican Americans, and Women wanted to prove that they deserved equal rights, freedom of speech, the right to sexuality preference, and equal treatment for women. They formed several organizations under great leaderships during these movements in order to civil rights and equality. Along with great leaders, powerful organizations, and dedicated supporters, African Americans, Mexican Americans, and women were able to successfully obtain many rights despite constant opposition. [This looks like a strong thesis, but I am a bit puzzled how great leaders, powerful organizations, and dedicated supporters also obtained rights. The sentence is rather confusing as it stands now. You may want to revise to indicate that these were instrumental in helping the cause. Then, if you are going to talk about them, that topic should come first in your discussion.] African Americans were in constant pursuit of equality through the civil rights movement that began in the 1940’s (Roark 843). They fought against racial discrimination, segregation laws, and for the right to vote without prejudice. Discrimination led to exclusion from belonging to professional sports teams (Roark 843). During the post war era in 1947, a man by the name of Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play major league baseball within an integrated team called the Brooklyn Dodgers (Roark 843). Known as a sports pioneer of the civil rights movement, he led the Dodgers to six national league titles and one outstanding World Series despite constant harassment from white players and fans (Roark 843). Several civil rights leaders emerged during this movement (Roark 680). Dr. Ralph David... ...is president?] If you sincerely desire to forward the interest s of all people, why do you oppose the national enfranchisement of women (Scott 24)? The president could not respond. The president made a Pro –suffrage speech for the women who protested and the next year Congress passed the Nineteenth Amendment giving women the right to vote in the year of 1918(Scott 24). All three minority groups used activities such as demonstrations to voice their opinions and stances to gain equal rights in America. Along with African Americans, Mexican Americans /Chicanos continued to be represented among the poor, and gradually won more political offices, effective enforcement of anti discrimination legislation, and greater respect for their culture (Roark 915). Mexican American like African Americans rejected traditional politics in favor of direct action (Roark 914). Minority Movements Essay -- Politics, Civil Rights Movement During the 1900’s many minority and ethnic groups including African Americans, Mexican Americans, and Women wanted to prove that they deserved equal rights, freedom of speech, the right to sexuality preference, and equal treatment for women. They formed several organizations under great leaderships during these movements in order to civil rights and equality. Along with great leaders, powerful organizations, and dedicated supporters, African Americans, Mexican Americans, and women were able to successfully obtain many rights despite constant opposition. [This looks like a strong thesis, but I am a bit puzzled how great leaders, powerful organizations, and dedicated supporters also obtained rights. The sentence is rather confusing as it stands now. You may want to revise to indicate that these were instrumental in helping the cause. Then, if you are going to talk about them, that topic should come first in your discussion.] African Americans were in constant pursuit of equality through the civil rights movement that began in the 1940’s (Roark 843). They fought against racial discrimination, segregation laws, and for the right to vote without prejudice. Discrimination led to exclusion from belonging to professional sports teams (Roark 843). During the post war era in 1947, a man by the name of Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play major league baseball within an integrated team called the Brooklyn Dodgers (Roark 843). Known as a sports pioneer of the civil rights movement, he led the Dodgers to six national league titles and one outstanding World Series despite constant harassment from white players and fans (Roark 843). Several civil rights leaders emerged during this movement (Roark 680). Dr. Ralph David... ...is president?] If you sincerely desire to forward the interest s of all people, why do you oppose the national enfranchisement of women (Scott 24)? The president could not respond. The president made a Pro –suffrage speech for the women who protested and the next year Congress passed the Nineteenth Amendment giving women the right to vote in the year of 1918(Scott 24). All three minority groups used activities such as demonstrations to voice their opinions and stances to gain equal rights in America. Along with African Americans, Mexican Americans /Chicanos continued to be represented among the poor, and gradually won more political offices, effective enforcement of anti discrimination legislation, and greater respect for their culture (Roark 915). Mexican American like African Americans rejected traditional politics in favor of direct action (Roark 914).

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Principle of Management

The purpose of this paper is to discuss Verwaayen decision-making skills in leadership role at Alcatel-Lucent. I will explain in details the manner in which decisions were made, risk factor, and the contribution to business. The decisions managers make at all level in business have a remarkable impact on the growth and wealth of the companies and the interests of employees, customers, and other stakeholders. Verwaayen resigned from Alcatel-Lucent in 2013 due to poor job performance.Ben Verwaayen is a Dutch businessman. He graduated from Utrecht University with a degree in law and international relation in 1975. He has been the CEO of Alcatel-Lucent since 2008. Verwaayen was under pressure to help (Alcatel-Lucent) a stressed networking-equipment manufacturer to become profitable again. Firstly, I will describe the type of decisions Verwaayen made as CEO. Secondly, I will publicize the risks and uncertainty made. Thirdly, I will explain what decision-making strategy management used.Las tly, I will expound on the ways I assume Verwaayen contribute organization’s learning at Alcatel-Lucent. Firstly, I will describe the type of decisions Verwaayen made as CEO. On Verwaayen first day as CEO, he received an email asking him for approval to hire a new secretary in a Poland office after 16 executives had already agreed. Verwaayen was surprise that executives had agreed to hire someone they never met or talked to. He put in place a directive allowing managers to hire their own personnel. This was the first decision that Verwaayen made at Alcatel-Lucent.Decision-making is the process by which managers react to opportunities and pressure by analyzing the choices and making decisions about certain organizational aspirations and courses of action according to Jones and George page (149) in our textbook. There are two types of decision-making; programmed or nonprogrammed. Verwaayen used programmed decision-making when he gave the managers authority to hire own staff. Ot her decisions that Verwaayen made including the company stopped hedging and wage that a 4G wireless LTE technology would materialize instead of rival WiMax.Secondly, Verwaayen decisions had a dramatic impact on Alcatel-Lucent, as well as opportunity risk. The decisions Verwaayen imposed helped Alcatel-Lucent redevelop their infrastructure, profits, and increased the stock value. Verwaayen gave the managers the responsibility to pursue issues that are important to them. The business goal that executives put forward as the new Alcatel-Lucent norms after the merger in 2008 worked for the executives. Risks and uncertainties in these decisions could have been overwhelming to the structure of the business.Accountability by managers could have abused to seek personal gain instead of business, and the decision to spend greatly on the 4G LTE technology could have fail if the key carriers in the Unites States chose to use other networking methods for their smart phones. Thirdly, Verwaayen and other top managers choose to pursue major issues in which they found to be critical toward the current culture and infrastructure of the company. Upon changing the culture and structure of the company Verwaayen and his top managers were able to make case by case decisions for the company.I believe if Verwaayen had used these six steps with the other managers: recognize the need for a decision, generate alternatives, choose among alternatives, implement the chosen alternative, and learn from feedback there would have been a different outcome. Lastly, I believe that Verwaayen could contribute organizational learning at Alcatel-Lucent varies ways. Verwaayen has a enormous knowledge of the organization’s marketplace as well as the stakeholders at Alcatel-Lucent.Verwaayen could teach management what it takes to run a successful business from his past experience. Learning from past mistakes within an organization is vital. Verwaayen should motivate managers to engage in entreprene urial intrapreneur spirit. Entrepreneurs have a high personality trait of openness to experience, meaning they are prone to be original, open minded, daring, and take risks. Also organizations need encourage intrapreneurship because it leads to organizational learning and innovation.In conclusion, Verwaayen made some great decisions as the CEO of Alcatel-Lucent during his time in power. He also empowered his managers to hire their own staff and gave them some responsibilities to seek out employees that had skill that are valuable to the company and allowed accountability for poor decision making. Verwaayen is instrumental in ending the Alcatel-Lucent hedge and investing heavily on 4G LTE technology. Verwaayen made some poor decisions that were not profitable for the company. I agree with the decision to ask Verwaayen to resign from his post in 2013.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Albert Einstein Essay

Albert Einstein Essay Albert Einstein was a German American scientist. He is best known for his theories on relativity and theories of matter and heat. Einstein is considered one of the greatest physicists of all time because he is thought to have changed the way one looks at the universe. Einstein was born in Ulm, southern Germany, to Jewish parents. A year after he was born he moved to Munich, Germany. Einstein showed no signs of being a genius at an early age. He did not like to receive instructions in school, therefore his education had to begin at home. He would still have to attend school in Munich though, and would get exceptional grades especially in Mathematics; however, he hated it, a teacher suggested him to leave and just study at home because of his dislike toward the school. Merely his presence caused the other students to disrespect the teachers. A story that Einstein loved to tell was that he once saw a compass and saw that the needle had a northward swing. He knew there was something behi nd it and he wanted to know the hidden mysteries. Einstein first learned algebra and the pythagora’s theorem when his uncle taught it to him. His uncle would visit the family frequently and was Einstein’s mentor. He would help him and encourage him to go on and never give up. Einstein loved to solve the algebraic and geometrical problems on his own. At the age of twelve he read a couple of books on Euclid Geometry and learned the whole thing on his own. At the age of fourteen he read a few science books and the books had an immense influence on his life. At the age of fifteen his parents moved to Milan, Italy, Einstein took this opportunity to drop out of the school in Munich. He spent a year just living with his parents and reading. Albert then realized that he needed to do something in life. He decided to finish school in Aarau, Switzerland. In 1895, he tried to enter into the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (a type of university). He took the entrance exam, failed it, and passed it the second time. In the institute Albert realized that his true love was Physics. Albert hated that school also, so much was his dislike toward the school, that he would not even attend the classes. He would rather stay home and do experiments and have his friend take notes for him, then he would just study the notes on his own and take the tests. Albert graduated from the university with not so prestigious grades, he tried to get a job at a university as a professor, but failed to find one. He even became a Swiss citizen to find a job in Switzerland, but it did not work out either. In 1902 he found a job at the patent office at Bern. All he had to do was put applications in for patents. This gave him time to devote himself to the Physics questions that he had and do scientific papers. In 1903 he married Meliva Maritsch, he had two sons with her and discussed his ideas with her all the time. Einstein started to draw attention to himself when he started to publish his papers. In 1905 he was hired as a professor in the University of Zurich for his Annus Mirabilis-the four major papers that he wrote in his life-. The first one was about the theoretical dissertations on the dimensions of molecules. The second was about the Brownian Motion; he made predictions about the motion of particles. The third one was about the Photoelectric Effect, which contained a revolutionary hypothesis on the nature of light. In this paper he wrote about the photon being proportional to frequency. His Fourth and most revolutionary paper was the one about Theory of Special Relativity, which contained the interaction viewed simultaneously by an observer at rest, and by an observer moving at uniform speed. Albert did not really become world famous until some of the things in his Theory of Special Relativity proved to be true. In his theory he explained the unexplained variations in the orbital motion of the planets. This was proved in 1919 when there was an eclipse. After the eclipse, people realized that what he had stated was true. From that time on he became world known. He was invited to many special meetings; on one of them he met one of his favorite scientist Max Planck and others that he relished. It was in that same year that he married his cousin Elsa. In 1921, he won the Noble Prize for Physics for the research he did on the PhotoElectric effect. Since Albert was a publicly declared Zionist, he was the target of many anti-semetics. He would be ridiculed in Germany because of his beliefs. Albert had moved to Germany to work at the University in Prague. When Hitler came to power, he immediately moved to Princeton, New Jersey. Albert later learned that some German scientist had discovered how to split the uranium atom. Albert and other scientist sent a letter to President Roosevelt and told him to start an atomic bomb project also. That is why the Manhattan project was started. Einstein helped to make the first two atomic Bombs. Albert Einstein died in 1955, in Princeton, New Jersey. He was able to see his own people return to their homeland, something he wanted to see all his life. Einstein accomplished many things in life because of his hard work, and all his work has helped our world today.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Analysis of How to Talk to a Hunter by Pam Houston

Analysis of 'How to Talk to a Hunter' by Pam Houston How to Talk to a Hunter by American writer Pam Houston (b. 1962) was originally published in the literary magazine Quarterly West. It was subsequently included in The Best American Short Stories, 1990, and in the authors 1993 collection, Cowboys Are My Weakness. The story focuses on a woman who continues dating a man a hunter even as the signs of his infidelity and lack of commitment mount. Future Tense One striking feature of the story is that it is written in future tense. For example, Houston writes: You will spend every night in this mans bed without asking yourself why he listens to top-forty country. The use of future tense creates a sense of inevitability about the characters actions, as if shes telling her own fortune. But her ability to predict the future seems to have less to do with clairvoyance than with past experience. Its easy to imagine that she knows exactly what will happen because it or something just like it has happened before. So the inevitability becomes as significant a part of the story as the rest of the plot. Who Is the You? I have known some readers who resent the use of second-person (you) because they find it presumptuous. After all, what could the narrator possibly know about them? But for me, reading a second-person narrative has always seemed more like being privy to someones internal monologue than like being told what I, personally, am thinking and doing. The use of second-person simply gives the reader a more intimate look at the characters experience and thought process. The fact that the future tense sometimes changes to imperative sentences like, Call the hunters machine. Tell him you dont speak chocolate only further suggests that the character is giving herself some advice. On the other hand, you dont have to be a heterosexual woman dating a hunter to be dating someone whos dishonest or who shies away from commitment. In fact, you dont have to be romantically involved with someone at all to be taken advantage of. And you definitely dont have to be dating a hunter in order to watch yourself enact mistakes that you see perfectly well are coming. So even though some readers might not recognize themselves in the specific details of the story, many might be able to relate to some of the larger patterns described here. While second-person might alienate some readers, for others it can serve as an invitation to consider what they have in common with the main character. Everywoman The absence of names in the story further suggests an attempt to portray something universal, or at least common, about gender and relationships. Characters are identified by phrases like your best male friend and your best female friend. And both of these friends tend to make sweeping declarations about what men are like or what women are like. (Note: the entire story is told from a heterosexual perspective.) Just as some readers might object to second-person, some will surely object to gender-based stereotypes. Yet Houston does make a convincing case that its difficult to be completely gender-neutral, as when she describes the verbal gymnastics that the hunter engages in to avoid admitting that another woman has come to visit him. She writes (hilariously, in my opinion): The man who has said hes not so good with words will manage to say eight things about his friend without using a gender-determining pronoun. The story seems entirely aware that its dealing in clichà ©s. For example, the hunter speaks to the protagonist in lines from country music. Houston writes: Hell say you are always on his mind, that youre the best thing thats ever happened to him, that you make him glad that hes a man. And the protagonist answers with lines from rock songs: Tell him it dont come easy, tell him freedoms just another word for nothing left to lose. Though its easy to laugh at the communication gap Houston portrays between men and women, country and rock, the reader is left wondering to what extent we ever can escape our clichà ©s.

Sunday, November 3, 2019

The Typical Firms in Hong Kong and Singapore Assignment

The Typical Firms in Hong Kong and Singapore - Assignment Example There are several methods that are currently being used to encourage economic growth for the typical firm in Hong Kong and Singapore. Four methods will be discussed in this paper namely: the development of well-functioning markets; enhancement access to productive opportunities; strengthening of the international framework of policies and institutions (U.S. Agency for International Development, 2008) and increase in the rate of technological progress. The development of well-functioning markets would include effective fiscal policies which focus on a fair, properly administered and implemented tax system. It should not be susceptible to corruption and must not be a hindrance to the economic activities of the country. The monetary policy plays a significant role in the economic growth of the country. It can either slow down or speed up the economy through manipulation of interest rates or the exchange rates (Johnson, 2005). Aside from an efficient fiscal and monetary policy, economic growth is promoted by removing the barriers to entry of foreign investors and promoting healthy competition among enterprises (USAID, 2008). Barriers to entry would include such aspects as corruption and too much red tape from the government. Foreign investors are also attracted to economies which have a strong system of intellectual property rights protection which minimizes investment risks. Systems of commercial law should also be in place for both the public and private institutions. The judicial system must be perceived as being fair and just and settlements of disputes must be expeditious and transparent. Other contributing factors in the development of well-functioning markets are the improvements in the agricultural development programs, support for infrastructure, trade capacity-building, financial sector reforms, enterprise development and privatization and workforce development. The second method that can be employed to encourage economic growth is to enhance access to pr oductive opportunities. This method would mean that both the poor and non-poor members of society should be given equal opportunity to become productive and contribute to the economy. All sectors of society should be given access to finance especially to sources of credit even without being able to offer adequate collateral. Banks, particularly the government-owned ones should offer financing programs for small and medium-scale enterprises. Aside from financial support, these small enterprises need access to other non-financial business services such as technical and supply chain expertise (USAID, 2008). This is necessary for the firms to be able to be competitive in the face of globalization. A country’s economic growth is fueled by a productive labor force. To achieve this, the labor markets must be able to create new jobs and at the same time assist in the improvement of the workers’ skills and productivity (U.S. Agency for International Development, 2008). Fair lab or practices, specifically protections and benefit programs for the workers must be observed to motivate them; thereby, increasing their productivity. Other ways of enhancing access to product

Friday, November 1, 2019

Discuss who is responsible for creating a 'Broken Britain' Essay

Discuss who is responsible for creating a 'Broken Britain' - Essay Example David Cameron, the prime minister of Conservatives, prior to the lections of 2008 had appeared in Glassgow and gave a vision of broken Britain’ for the first time. In his speech, he admitted the effects caused by destruction of industries and its disastrous outcomes on jobs and aspirations of people. What is actually meant was formulation of wrong policies which curbed the interests and wellbeing of middle- class Britons. People who were around and below poverty line and people facing social exclusion were his chief concerns. He placed their problem on similar grounds of importance with other national problems like obesity, consumption of drugs and alcohol. He insisted that problems in society arise as direct â€Å"consequence of the choices people make†. This view of broken Britain is shared by most British citizens. Glassgow’s residents had suffered though the phrases said by Cameron (Jones, 2011, p. 73). Politics, more precisely liberalism had played a major role in breaking it further. While endorsing his â€Å"semi- apocalyptic† vision of Britain being broken into pieces, the working middle class and lower middle class sections were first held responsible and then shown as victims. This duality in policy led to division of opinions among millions of Britons all across the state. Added to it, since then whenever there occurred any tragic incident or mishap happened, political leaders tried their level best to exemplify them and support their own respective views. All these did nothing but infuriated the common people. Several surveys and studies have reflected the growing contempt. The working class or middle class average Britons were targeted by both the parties belong to right and left (Jones, 2011, p. 73).... Added to it, since then whenever there occurred any tragic incident or mishap happened, political leaders tried their level best to exemplify them and support their own respective views. All these did nothing but infuriated the common people. Several surveys and studies have reflected the growing contempt. The working class or middle class average Britons were targeted by both the parties belong to right and left (Jones, 2011, p. 73). Britain: social decay Present day British society is subdivided into numerous categories. Different classes are segmented based on culture, ethnicity, affluence, ancestral roots and tradition. All these segmentations have made Britain’s society rather a complex one. Political and cultural authority of London all over Britain is not welcomed by some parts of Britain. Also districts like Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England have been continuously pledging for autonomous power in their respective areas than centralized authority of London ( Levitas, 2005, p 123). At the same time, there exists stark disparity among the rich and affluent class and the economically depressed ones. Thus gaps regarding economy and culture have separated northern and southern parts of Britain. Above all is the political rift between the liberals and the conservatives. The political arena has created divisions among natives, common citizens, minority communities and groups of special interest. Their chief concern is the imbalance between ethnic cultures and national identity as a British. Also, one can experience a chord of disharmony among the cities and the British countryside. Difference in moral values among the old and new generation can also be found all through Britain. This is roughly the present